The Emerging Markets Century

How a New Breed of World-Class Companies Is Overtaking the World

Apr 8, 2007

Antoine van Agtmael's book of this title describes how emerging markets will rival older market leaders in the coming decades.

In his book The Emerging Markets Century - How a New Breed of World-Class Companies Is Overtaking the World, author Antoine van Agtmael states that "instead of being peripheral, as they have been since the first Industrial Revolution, key economies of the former Third World will soon emerge as the dominant economies of the future."

The author's claim that in the 21st century the economic "center of gravity" will shift from the United States and Europe to Asia and Latin America is supported by financial data, demographics, the irrepressible globalization of business and culture, and developments in foreign countries such as India and China.

The lingering, outdated, stigma of "Third World" applied to some of the countries such as Brazil and India and their low-capita incomes keeps some business analysts and investors from taking a fresh look at them. Though they make up about 85% of the world's population, they account for only 20% of the world's gross national product (GNP).

According to van Agtmael's projections from combining data and analyses in recent Goldman Sach's and J. P. Morgan reports, sometime between 2030-2035, the economies of the emerging markets and the traditional major economic powers making up the G7 will each have a 50% share of the global economy. For the emerging markets, this is a rise from the current 21% in about three decades. By this time, they will no longer be seen as emerging markets, but rather as recognized and proven large, established markets.

The probability of the continuing growth and ultimate success of the best businesses in emerging markets is high mainly because many of these businesses are based on consumer products. Among these are shoes, computers, cell phones, cars, and beer and wine. These are products the large populations of the lower-income countries can buy.

The consumer market for vast quantities of inexpensive, regularly disposable consumer items is no longer limited to Western economies.

The copyright of the article The Emerging Markets Century in Emerging Business Markets is owned by Henry Berry. Permission to republish The Emerging Markets Century in print or online must be granted by the author in writing.